Down -80 overnight right smack into the next support number at 1430. After losing -100.30 on Frydays session and down another 80 tonight. Pretty crazy I’d say, but this is how the shiny rock trades.

Unfortunately I am long a piece of the GLD from 147.75. A half sized position so far. Certainly a continuation move in the overnight trade. Two days and down -170 handles. I want to see how it trades tomorrow before I make any decision on this. Bloodbaths like this are when I like to buy the blood, but this time I am very early to the knife fight. The 1430 spot is decent support. Ultimately, I think this is going to 1255 before any kind of a real bottom as we have spoken about for some time, but as always, there will be bounces.

This was a planned trade waiting for 1518 which arrived, but is just not working. Might try some trade repair on this if the price action is “right” early on Monday.

I see a big move coming. Which way? We shall let price action tell us. If this tape is weak today and we see continuation on the market this can get nailed under yesterdays lows of 697.11. The next major support is at 685 which could easily be seen today if a bloodbath hits. The ATR on this is 12 bucks. Under that 685, and all hell could break loose and we could see a fall to 645 then 634.
Now the upside trade is if the tape holds up, and we see good volume early, the true entry would be over 707.62 and into the gap, I would front-run that # and try for a better entry. First target would be 710 res, then the gap fill at 713.50, and maybe new all time highs. Really depends on Mr. Mkt.

I am short here at 394.26 . All time highs are 399.10, so I will use breaking over 400 as my MAX PAIN for a stop. 396 is resistance here, and has struggled with it a tad past four days. Today during some blood in the market it sold off hard to the 10ema at 391.85. Under that 10ema I see blood.

Short entry between 394-396 first target is the 10ema at 391.80, then the 50ema on the 30 minute chart at 388.90 for target two. The next support comes in at 385.50 for target three. Not to mention the 38% retrace is at 376 if things turned ugly in the market. Great R/R here a 4-5 point stop for a +10-20 trade in a few days.

So far at 10 pm the ES is down 23, was -50, on Fecal Cliff noise for a plan B, anyway rehashed bad news, nothing new. “Welcome to machine”.

Huge move no doubt. I covered my shorts at 1432 and got long today, small, but still long. Grabbed SPY calls near the close, they will sting. There is a lot of time between now and the bell. Major support is at 1404. The numbers to pay attention to are 1432 in case this bounces tonight. The big # in my opinion is the 1420 Kirby shelf, we are in a bear flag which stopped dead at 1448, losing 1420 will execute it. 1408 represents the 38% retrace, and 1395 is the 50%. These explosive gap-downs are usually bought. Just a matter of finding the buyers.

Seems that there are many on the stream that think this is the end of the world and we are going to totally crash. Please… Keep level headed, numb your emotions, there is no fear or greed, just a sucker, who’s willing to pay you a premium for being too early or late. We will navigate the murky waters in the am.

Like this look a lot. Took a position at 29.96 Long term support is at 29, use it for MAX PAIN stops. As you can see the 29.75 Kirby has held this basing stock in check. Well today it’s breaking into it. Entry between 29.50-30. First target is long term resistance at 30.60, then looking for a gap fill at 30.97 for target 2. Final target on this would be 31.50, the next Kirby wall.

There are many screaming bullish charts out there. I want to see how the next couple of days set up in the SPX before really adding new setups at this time. The market could really use some digestion.

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A dead cat bounce is due for sure, but this looks like death right now. Held the 200 weekly ma, but closed under major res at 80.06. These are the key #’s to pay attn to. Aug 2011 Dollar @ 73 SPX was at 1100. It ripped +10 points and SPX is in the 1400′s. 2012 has proved to be a year where a stronger dollar didn’t matter as much to the SPX.

Walking into a -10 handle ES gap down. Negating yesterdays end of day rally into the close. The low was 133.38. We are trading near that level now. The gap to fill is at 132.79 which also happens to be major support on the SPY. With overhead resistance at 134.62, we missed that by .02 yesterday. We have been down 5 days in a row so far, and testing the lower rail of the ascending channel.

I am looking for 132.79 to hold today if we get there. The reversal trade will be if the market can push back through 133.38. The 38% retracement of the recent rally from 126.48 is at 133.46. If 132.79 support is breached the 50% fib is at 132.13. I expect buyers to show up today, just a matter of where. The dollar has been on a rampage breaking 83.65 resistance by tagging 83.96, the next stop is 84.73, and the same goes for bonds. The bond stock ratio chart is also about to cross to the upside again.

Bazooka, they put something together across the pond. Hmm? did anyone really think the powers that be are gonna let us go back to the stone ages? The ES is up +23. What we need to see is it hold and digest throughout the day. 134.62 is major support as well as SPX 1338 which we will open over. Hard to think that this will be a gap n go being how huge the gap is, but anything can happen. The massive buy program seen at the close yesterday told us this was coming. It was not a good idea to buy into it, if you were not already long, but for god’s sake you don’t short a rip like that with the mess going on. We have some Kirby resistance at 135.25 as well as the 100ma on the daily at 135.35. A close and hold above 134.62 would be nice. Don’t chase this today, use it to lighten up and bank some profits. We are in the moving business not storage.

Here is a post from back in 2009, I still feel the same. http://gtotoy.com/an-old-post-of-mine-from-march-2009-and-july-2009/

Must say I like this one down here. My long term sup/res # is 61.25 and I have a buy stop order in at 61.26, will buy a dip as well if it comes in some. This is a swing idea. Kirby starts at breaking 61.25 and can push it fast to 63.06.. 2nd target is the next level of long term resistance at 64.95, and with some time it can even gap fill up at 67.16 for target 3. MAX pain stops on this is losing today’s low of 59.50. Pretty decent risk reward if ya ask me.

One the best tools I have in my arsenal. The numbers are based on the DX futures, so the candles don’t tag them perfect because this is the USD.  My favorite charting platform stockcharts.com does not support the DX.

Today it hit 81.615 a mere .005 from yes you guessed it 82.62. Why? Well, 82.62 is resistance period. It is where one can anticipate price changing direction. Bull flagged into 81.26. Why did it bounce there? Well 81.26 is support. Keep it simple. These are long term numbers that I do not change, and are part of my everyday toolbox. Knowing in advance where price is most likely to change direction is the only edge you will ever get in the market.

This is a very bullish looking chart. Let’s see how it handles 82.62, resistance overhead lies at 83.65 and stopped it a few weeks ago.

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